Archive for 'Projections'
What can we expect from the Huskers during Big 12 Conference play?
January 7, 2010 by Bret Nellor, under News, Projections.
It’s finally here Husker fans, Big 12 Conference play. No more appetizers with directional schools like Southern Utah or Southeastern Louisiana. We’re about to find what happens when teams get real and stop playing nice. But will we like what we see?
Nebraska kicks off their Big 12 schedule on Saturday with a road game against Texas A&M. This will be the start of a 16 game stretch against a collection of opponents that together might be the best the Big 12 has seen since its inception. Two teams in Kansas and Texas who will likely be #1 seeds in the NCAA tourney and another team in Kansas St. that could end up as a top 4 seed. There could very well be 6 teams that make the NCAA tournament once the dust settles.
It all adds up to a very tough road for this inexperienced Husker team.
I can easily see 2 losses to Kansas, 1 loss to Texas, and likely 1 loss to Kansas State. That’s a 4 game hole that will be tough to dig out of. But there are a few reasons for optimism.
First I’ll start with our slate against South division opponents. We face Texas A&M, Texas, and Oklahoma State on the road. At home we get Oklahoma, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Assuming we don’t pick up wins in the road games, the home games are where this team has to take advantage. And it’s not unrealistic to think that Nebraska could win those 3.
Oklahoma has been a disappointment so far. They are 9-5 and look like a team that doesn’t know how to play together. That’s a recipe for disaster on the road. Baylor has gotten off to a good start, so this game looks like it will be a challenge. But the Bears have not played well in Lincoln. Nebraska holds a 6-1 advantage on Baylor lifetime in the Devaney Center. Texas Tech has started this season well but holds a 2-2 record on the road, which easily could have been a 1-3 record of not for a 2 point win over Stephen F. Austin. Nebraska holds a 6-2 advantage over the Red Raiders lifetime in the Devaney Center.
From there it becomes a matter of holding the home court against the North division. If they can somehow split their series games with Iowa State, Kansas State, Missouri and then sweep Colorado, they can finish at 8-8. Which would put them squarely on the bubble for the NCAA tourney.
On paper, that all looks like it’s possible. And I think it is, but then I start to think about Nebraska’s inexperienced roster. Only Ryan Anderson, Sek Henry and Brandon Richardson have played meaningful minutes in the Big 12. This will be a huge eye-opener for the rest of the team. How they respond will determine how far the Huskers can go.
Of course the wild card for NU is Christian Standhardinger. He becomes eligible for Saturday’s Texas A&M game. Is he the answer for the Huskers on offense? Can he come in and average 12 points and 6 rebounds per game? It seems like a lot of pressure for a freshman to step in and handle against what will likely be the best competition he’s ever faced. I think he’ll have a positive impact, I just don’t think it’s enough to push Nebraska over the hump.
With that said, I think the Huskers will win 1 or 2 games that they’re not expected to if only because their defense keeps them in games. But I also think we’ll lose 1 or 2 home games that we should win simply because our offense can’t seem to generate any easy buckets and as a team they shoot free throws so poorly.
My prediction is Nebraska finishes at 7-9 in the Big 12 (19-12 overall) and makes a return visit to the NIT. What do you think?
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2008-09 Husker Basketball Season Projection
November 15, 2008 by Bret Nellor, under Projections.
Here we are, tomorrow marks the start of the ‘08-’09 Nebraska Cornhuskers basketball season. Doc Sadler enters his 3rd season as head coach. He has guided the program to 37 wins in his first two campaigns, which is tied for the most wins in the first 2 years in Husker history. And his team is coming off their first 20 win season since 1999.
Sadler has done a great job of building the Huskers so far and now we watch to see if he can take the next step and lead us back to the NCAA tournament.
This upcoming season will not be without its challenges. The Huskers are thin across their front line after the departure of Aleks Maric, who was the undeniable leader of the team over the last 2 seasons. Sadler built his strategy around the big guy. So now without him the Huskers style of play looks to change to an up-tempo, pressing squad. With the amount of depth retunring in the backcourt and with the addition of some newcomers this strategy on paper looks like a good choice. Although once Big 12 play begins you can bet that our rebounding ability – good or bad – will be a very important piece of the puzzle.
The non-conference schedule doesn’t differ much from what the Huskers have faced the last couple seasons. There are 4 critical games in this part of the schedule that if the Huskers can win these, would be a big boost their RPI. At TCU on 11-19, at home against Creighton on 11-29, at Arizona State on 12-7, and at Oregon State on 12-13. A split in these games would be expected, but much momentum could be gained if the team can go 3-1 or 4-0 before heading into conference play. A poor showing in these games and the RPI hit could really damage the Huskers chances for an at-large bid in the NCAA tourney later in the year.
I expect the Huskers to look a little sloppy at times during the non-conference part of the season but eventually they’ll start to come together and understand the style of play that Coach Sadler wants to impose on their opponents. The Huskers will be 10-2 coming out of this part of the schedule.
The one thing I really like about Nebraska’s conference schedule this year is the first 6 games. Especially since we don’t have to face Kansas twice during this stretch as we did last year. Not only that but this early stretch offers a great opportunity to build some momentum as we should favored in 4 of these games. A 4-2 or 5-1 start could give us confidence and catapult us toward a strong run.
Certainly there are some tough games on the conference slate such as at Oklahoma on 1-21, at home against Kansas on 1-28, at home against Texas on 2-7, at Kansas on 2-21, and at Baylor on 3-7. But with home contests against Oklahoma State on 1-24 and Texas A&M on 2-24, the schedule offers us some chances to gain the upperhand against teams that figure to be fighting for the last couple of bids to the NCAA tourney.
With that in mind I expect the Huskers to finish 7th in Big 12 play at 9-7. This will leave us sitting at 19-9 heading into the Big 12 tournament and squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble. If the Huskers grab 2 key wins in the Big 12 tournament we’ll have an excellent chance to grab the conference’s last at-large bid into the dance.
Overall I think we’ll see the Huskers just miss the NCAA tourney and make a return to the NIT. I believe Coach Sadler will lead the team to its second 20-win season and add another building block to the rebuilding project that has been the Nebraska basketball program.
Let’s get this season started. Go Big Red!
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2008-09 Big 12 Projection
November 11, 2008 by Bret Nellor, under News, Projections.
Here’s my picks for the Big 12 Conference this season.
- Oklahoma
- Texas
- Kansas
- Baylor
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma State
- Nebraska
- Missouri
- Texas Tech
- Kansas State
- Colorado
- Iowa State
Oklahoma’s inside/outside duo of Blake Griffin and Willie Warren will be too much for the rest of the league this year. The top 4 teams will separate themselves from the rest of the conference leaving a pack of teams including A&M, Okie St., Nebraska, Mizzou and Texas Tech to fight it out for the Big 12’s remaining NCAA berths.
Unfortunately I think Nebraska will finish at 7th needing a couple wins in the Big 12 tourney to try to overtake Oklahoma State for the final spot in the NCAA.
Will the Huskers make the NCAA tourney or return to the NIT this year? I’ll put together my season preview soon and give you my take on what this season holds for Coach Sadler and the boys. Stay tuned.
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Which Husker redshirt will contribute the most?
November 3, 2008 by Bret Nellor, under Player Updates, Projections.
Much was written about Nebraska basketball’s group of redshirts last year and this off-season. With all the attention they received many of us Husker fans would agree that they represent the future for this program. Needless to say much will be expected of them in the next couple of seasons.
So what does that mean for Alonzo Edwards, Brandon Richardson, Toney McCray and Alex Chapman this year? Certainly all 4 of these players should see a good amount of playing time. But who will step up and be a big contributor for the Huskers this season?
Let’s take a look at each of them:
- Alonzo Edwards is a strong 6-7 redshirt freshman forward who will be playing his first season of collegiate basketball. At this stage of his career he has the ability provide some depth on the inside for the Huskers. I expect him to come off the bench and bang with the opponent’s bigs and grab some rebounds. Alonzo should be able to clean up some garbage under the hoop and score a few points every night. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him use his 5 fouls to their full potential in most contests as well.
- Brandon Richardson is a 6-3 redshirt freshman also preparing to play his first season of collegiate basketball. Coach Sadler loves his competetive fire. That fact alone will help him find playing time this year. Unfortunately for Brandon, the Huskers have good depth in the front court with Cookie Miller, Sek Henry, Steve Harley and Paul Velander. I expect him to come off the bench to spell those guys at the point and the 2-guard. It will be tough for him to have a big impact this season, but his limited minutes off the bench and outside shooting touch will be important as Doc has plans employ an up-tempo style of play.
- Toney McCray is a 6-6 redshirt freshman who will join Edwards and Richardson as a first-year college player. McCray was one fo the players in the redshirt group that Coach Sadler knew could have contributed to the team last season. He has good size and used his redshirt year add some bulk to prepare for this year. I expect him to be the Husker’s 2nd option of the bench behind Sek Henry spelling Ade Dagunduro on the wing. He has a real knack for slashing to the hoop and scoring points and could be a strong force helping kickstart our offense on those nights where we’re sluggish.
- Alex Chapman is a 6-9 redshirt sophomore who has gained some notoriety as the Husker’s tallest player. He has played one season of Juco ball and was forced to redshirt last season due to a knee injury. Chapman along with McCray could have been contributers last season for Coach Sadler. I expect Alex will be a starter for the Huskers this season. He will counted upon to be strong rebounder for the team as well as provide some scoring. He has good shooting ability from the outside and could cause some matchup problems for our opponents when we’re on offense. I envision him putting up 8-10 points and 6-7 rebounds per game.
With all of that said, I think Alex Chapman will be the biggest contributor of this group. As I’ve mentioned before Alex’s knee injuries are a cause for concern and I’m hopeful he’ll be able to put that behind him for the rest of his career here.
I’ve added a new poll to see what you think about this redshirt group. Who do you think will have the biggest impact for the Huskers this season?
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Does Nebraska Basketball Have A Go To Guy?
October 20, 2008 by Bret Nellor, under Projections.
After looking over the Big 12’s Preseason All-Conference team and putting some thought into what I think the Huskers starting lineup will look like this year, I started to wonder who will be our go to guy? Our leader, the guy that gets our tough buckets when we need them most, our most valuable player?
Nebraska has had a guy the last 2 season that everyone knew was the key to the Huskers fortunes each game, Aleks Maric. This season the Huskers are somewhat of an unknown. There are several returning players who all played extensively, but none of them played consistently enough to warrant that “go to” tag. No one that opponents game plan for and say “if we shut down _____, we win.”
So who do the Huskers look to this season? For my money, I think that guy has to be Ade Dagunduro.
Ade is a quick, athletic 6-5 small forward with good ball handling skills and versatile scoring ability. Last season he teased us with his ability to shoot 3’s and also slash to hoop. Unfortunately, his game was inconsistent from game to game and sometimes from first half to second half. He seemed to find himself and understand his role down the stretch though, which gives me hope for this year.
Coach Sadler will ask a lot of Ade this season. He will be locked up defensively with many of our opponent’s best scorers which could take alot out of him. But I believe that due to the Huskers lack of size, many of our opponents will be defending him with a taller player. This will give Ade a favorable matchup allowing him to use his quickness and get to the hoop for easy baskets and drawing fouls. When defenses adjust to take away his drive he can utilize his outside shooting touch. He will present problems for opponents.
Fortunately for Nebraska, Ade doesn’t need to carry the same kind of weight that Aleks did. We have more depth overall and we can spread out our scoring a little better. But make no mistake, the Huskers will need a guy they can go to when they’re down by one and the clock’s winding down. That guy can be Ade Dagunduro.
What do you think? Can Ade shoulder that load for Nebraska this season? Or is someone else better suited for this role?
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Huskers’ Starting Five
October 19, 2008 by Bret Nellor, under Projections.
There’s been quite a bit of talk recently about the Huskers’ lack of size on their roster and their syle of play. Coach Sadler himself has hinted that he may use 5 guards on the floor in some situations. I believe this is the year that we see a style of play that Doc prefers. With that said, here is my projection for the Huskers’ starting 5.
PG Cookie Miller 5-7
SG Steve Harley 5-11
SF Ade Dagunduro 6-5
PF Ryan Anderson 6-4
C Alex Chapman 6-9
This lineup is similar to the lineup we used towards the end of last season before Miller was injured in the Texas A&M game. It gives us experience with 4 returning starters, scoring punch (Harley is the top returning scorer at 9.1 ppg), the ability to play uptempo, and some size help us grab rebounds. This lineup does make us a little short in the backcourt and obviously larger teams will cause us some issues on the glass. Keep in mind though that rebounding will be major concern for the Huskers all season long no matter what team we are facing. Our ability to rebound and defend the post will determine how successful the Huskers are this season.
I think that Sek Henry will be our top guy off the bench. He’s versatile, plays great defense and can put the ball in the bucket. I see him spelling any of the starters aside from Chapman in the post. I’ve heard some talk that he could supplant Miller and become our starting point guard, but I still think that Miller is our best option at the point with his ability to run the offense and put pressure on the opposition’s primary ball handler. The battle for this starting spot might be the most competitive position in pre-season practices.
As mentioned in a previous post, Chapman has been sidelined with a knee injury but is not expected to miss any games. If that injury becomes a lingering issue, my projected starting 5 is out the window as I could see Doc making some drastic alterations.
Link: See what Collegehoops.net is projecting for the Huskers starting lineup as well as the rest of the Big 12.
